Daijiworld Media Network - New Delhi
New Delhi, Sep 6: India has emerged as a crucial source of diesel for Europe, supplying around 60 per cent of the fuel transiting the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait to the region in August, as Russian exports remain severely constrained and US shipments begin to decline, according to energy and freight analytics firm Vortexa.
Around 2,00,000 barrels per day of diesel, or gasoil, transited the Bab-el-Mandeb in August on vessels bound for Europe, close to year-earlier levels after flows through the strategic shipping route nearly stalled in March and April. Indian refineries supplied approximately 60 per cent of the volume, making India an increasingly important source of diesel for Europe’s eastern supply routes.
India is the world’s fourth-largest refiner, with installed refining capacity of 258.1 million tonnes per annum, exceeding domestic fuel demand. In 2025-26, India exported 61.5 million tonnes of petroleum products, placing it among the world’s major exporters of refined fuels.
However, questions remain over whether India can sustain the increased supply. Vortexa data showed crude and condensate shipments into India fell for a second consecutive month to around 3.8 million barrels per day in August, compared with 4.8 million barrels per day a year earlier.
Russian diesel exports, once a major source of European supply, have remained largely absent. Russia’s seaborne diesel and gasoil exports averaged only around 1,50,000 barrels per day during the first 25 days of August, down about 6,10,000 barrels per day from a year earlier and 81 per cent below the five-year seasonal average, according to Vortexa.
Even the lifting or partial relaxation of Russia’s diesel export ban from September 1 may not result in an immediate recovery. Ukrainian drone strikes have continued to disrupt Russian refineries and export infrastructure, with 32 attacks on refineries recorded during July and August.
An attack on the 2,60,000-barrel-per-day Perm refinery left only around 28 per cent of its crude distillation capacity operational, according to data cited by Vortexa.
Export terminals have also been affected. The Black Sea accounted for about 44 per cent, or 3,80,000 barrels per day, of Russia’s diesel and gasoil exports last year, but disruptions at ports and refineries have reduced available volumes. No diesel cargoes have been exported from Tuapse since a May strike, Vortexa said.
The Tuapse port handled around 90,000 barrels per day, or roughly 10 per cent of Russia’s total diesel exports, in 2025.
Russia has also increasingly turned to imports to compensate for domestic refining disruptions. Its seaborne gasoline imports surged to a record roughly 1,25,000 barrels per day in August, equivalent to about 4,70,000 tonnes during the month. Around 55 per cent of the imports arrived on sanctioned vessels, while India, Türkiye and Morocco were among the suppliers.
Indian gasoline cargoes to Russia in August were carried on sanctioned fleets and involved ship-to-ship transfers in the Mediterranean, reflecting how sanctions, refinery outages and disruptions to conventional trade routes are reshaping refined-product flows.
For Europe, however, India’s growing importance is primarily on the diesel side. The country is helping fill the supply gap created by reduced Russian exports at a time when the United States, another major source of additional European supply, is also showing signs of retreat.
The US supplied about half of Europe’s seaborne diesel imports from outside the region in August, or around 5,20,000 barrels per day, compared with roughly a quarter a year earlier. However, US shipments peaked at nearly 5,40,000 barrels per day in the first half of August before falling to around 3,50,000 barrels per day in the second half, a decline of about 35 per cent.
This leaves Europe increasingly dependent on Indian refiners to maintain eastern supply routes even as crude availability in India tightens.
The Strait of Hormuz is providing limited relief to the clean-products market. Only 37 crossings by MR2-sized or larger tankers carrying clean products were recorded during the first 27 days of August, down from 55 in July and 69 in June.
Ship-to-ship transfers offshore Oman have continued, but most of the activity involves crude rather than refined products. Around 2,30,000 barrels per day of clean products originating west of Hormuz were transferred through ship-to-ship operations offshore Oman during the first three weeks of August, down from about 4,00,000 barrels per day during the same period in June.
The developments have resulted in an increasingly concentrated European diesel supply chain, with Russian exports depressed, US shipments declining and the Hormuz route offering limited additional supplies.
India is consequently carrying a growing share of the burden, according to Vortexa.
Europe is now approaching the peak winter diesel-demand period with inventories already low, while refineries in Europe and North America are preparing for autumn maintenance after operating at elevated rates. The tighter supply environment leaves limited room for further disruptions.