Antony Cony D'Souza
Projects manager, QTPC, Doha
(This is an open column for our regular contributors and new writers. Opinions expressed here are solely those of the author, and not necessarily endorsed by daijiworld. Readers are welcome to air their opinions through comments or in form of articles)
May 13: I am in a clear hurry to write this article as election results are fast approaching as much as BJP''s Narendra Modi, the man who many believe will be India''s next prime minister, is, clearly, also in a hurry. "Yes, there will be a tsunami, my friends, and it will be a Modi tsunami which will destroy the Congress port," "Do you want an MP or a PM? If you want an MP, vote for Congress, if you want a PM vote BJP. And if your son is sitting in Delhi, you don''t have to worry about anything," he had said recently.
From the crowd several thousand supporters cheered to their leader shouting at top of their voices "Yes, yes, we will send you to Delhi!"
At this juncture, assuming that Modi will make a triumphant march to Delhi soon, I do not intend to waste my time writing about Modi’s early life - wife or about the Gujrat communal riots of 2002. I think it is time for me now to discuss about how far and wide Modi would prevail as a successful PM.
Modi has often mocked the Congress government for not being able to control inflation and govern efficiently. He has promised more lucrative prices to farmers for their crops, better roads, and more irrigated farms if voted to power. Modi is an Iron Man like his mentor Saradar Vallabhbhai Patel. Past 12 years if critics are of the opinion that there was no real socio-economic development at the grassroot level in Gujarat, at the same time almost all critics do agree commonly that there was real development in the political area in Gujarat.
Gujarat is the only state in India where the BJP has been in power continuously since 1998 and won over half of the total seats in the last six elections. In 2012, the party registered its fifth consecutive win in the state polls - its third under Modi. He has been the chief minister of this western state for 12 years now.
No doubt, India will certainly have a new government in place after the results of the general elections are declared on May 16, and it is nearly certain that it will be a coalition government headed by Narendra Modi of the BJP. Many Indians desperately hope that Modi will be able to bring about an improvement in India’s economic fortunes. Expectations are high - but will he be able to deliver? The answer is a very ambiguous ''it depends''. That’s because the prime minister, as the head of the central government, has power to formulate and execute economic policies, but that power is severely limited in a COALITION government.
There is hope that as the prime minister, Modi will be able to meet at least part of the expectations of renewed growth. Certainly he will not be able to make any major structural changes in the short run. For that to happen, he needs greater political support in both houses of the parliament. But in the short run, even as the leader of a coalition government, there are low-hanging fruits which can be picked profitably:
• Although Modi will not be able to radically reduce the bureaucracy (which would have been simply wonderful for the economy) he will be able to make it more accountable and responsive to the needs of the people. With the reduction in red tape, industrial growth will improve, and consequently increase employment in the formal sector.
• He could reduce the number and rationalize the number of government departments (or “ministries”) so that the government intervention and micro-management of the economy is significantly reduced. This will make government leaner and lead to more efficient use of public funds.
• He could restructure the way public assistance is given to the poor. Currently it is a rat’s nest of complicated schemes of subsidies, all created for the ostensible purpose of helping the poor but most of the spending ends up being siphoned away. A direct cash transfer scheme to those below the poverty line will not only reach the target but also reduce the cost to the public. This will definitely have popular support although it will not be popular with those administering the current complex system.
A Pakistani industrialist is sanguine/confident that NarendraModi will infuse new life in Indo-Pak trade and the investment regime, and transform the present scenario of policy paralysis and the lack of optimism into more bang for the buck.
The various analysts and commentators on Pakistan’s electronic media and in their columns in the national newspapers generally opine that things would be rough for Pakistan once Modi settles into the driving seat at 7, Race Course Road in New Delhi. Usually, they give more importance to the rhetorical balderdash regurgitated by Amit Shah and his ilk, who maintain their aggressive posture at most of the campaign rallies. They also routinely refer to Modi’s anti-Pakistan and anti-China statements to prove their point.
Pakistan’s business community, most of whose leaders are gung-ho about liberalization of trade and investment with India, are, for the first time, discussing, watching, and trying to understand the dynamics of the Indian election process, and especially the ramifications of a Modi government. The buzz in the bazaars and in various trade organizations is that there would be a shift in the Pakistani-specific thinking from Chief Minister Modi to Prime Minister Modi.
India is a democracy, and its government is “of the people, by the people, for the people.” Its economic policies and the consequent poverty are also of the people, by the people, and for the people. But India needs economic freedom for its political freedom to be meaningful.
Modi alone cannot transform India; he does not have the power. No one person does; only Indians collectively more importantly should come from the adversaries within the party. It is an understatement to say that Modi has powerful political enemies, some within his own party. The primary reason for that is that he is an outsider: a self-made man who does not belong to the club of the elite that has been ruling India for 60-odd years. He does not have a stake in the perpetuation of the system that has kept India abjectly poor and mostly illiterate - one in which the government has near-absolute control of the economy. Those in government have the power to implement policies that are good for them, but are harmful to the people at large.
During the campaign, the indefatigable leader - his party reckons Modi will have travelled some 300,000 km (18,641 miles) across India and spoken at 437 public meetings by the time the elections end - has communicated to voters through tea-shop meetings using multiple video links and holograms. These allow him to "appear" at a number of rallies at the same time.
"People who have worked with his government say Modi prefers to depend on a team of handpicked bureaucrats rather than his ministers in getting work done. He brings in young professionals to work as interns in the government. He holds regular away-days with bureaucrats in resorts where, according to one participant, he "listens intently to deliberations, takes notes and never nods off to sleep".
Here I have to testify a video that I had seen recently by Dr B M Hegde aired by some political wings. He testifies, in the flight, in the business class, Modi was in the front row while Dr Hegde was at the rear end. After learning about Dr Hegde, Modi himself personally came to him to know about family programmes to be implemented in Gujarat and later they were implemented. I must admit here from Dr Hegde that Modi is a humble learner to the core for the welfare of his people. "He's very focused, works very hard and gives the impression of a man with a mission," says one bureaucrat, who is critical of his record in the riots.
In the end, no politician, in recent history, has divided India like Modi.
His supporters regard him as some sort of a messiah who can return India to high growth and a position of prestige and strength. His critics - and many of them include some of India''s most distinguished thinkers, writers and academics - believe he threatens the idea of a plural India.
"Whatever people might say," says BJP leader Arun Jaitley, "Modi has succeeded in communicating directly to the people."
How far Indians have responded will be known on 16th of May; a great wish of many, can be Modi's destiny.