UP Polls: Will Underdog BJP Score an Unexpected Victory?
Faisal Fareed
Daijiworld Media Network - Lucknow
Lucknow, Jan 27: Election is an interesting phenomenon. You win even if majority of the electorate is against you.
Perhaps, for the Saffron brigade, Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP), it is rightly said that the party will increase its tally in UP assembly elections. After that the BJP leaders will go all out shouting that their ideology is blooming.
A closer look reveals that the BJP in UP is in ICU but will gain immensely from the division of votes. The BJP leaders also understand this and are satisfied with their performance.
BJP which ruled the state in the backdrop of Ram wave has now been decimated in UP’s politics. Thanks to the over ambitious nature of its own leader, the party with a difference is now known for its clobbering, factionalism, depleted cadre and with no clear vision. Temple issue is also catching up to offer some respite to them.
In UP’s election BJP even lost the status of main opposition party with the only solace being that it is still ahead of Congress. This year also BJP leaders started with much pomp and show. However, soon it was back to square one. With as many as four contenders for CM post namely Rajnath Singh, Kalraj Mishra, Surya Pratap Shahi and the imported Uma Bharti from Madhya Pradesh, the party is gaining only because the opposition is divided.
Enough of leg pulling marred the BJP’s campaign. Here is a look at major incidents.
L K Advani took out a rath yatra against corruption and touched some areas of UP. What the result was is not known but now he is being sidelined in the state. Till January 27 with the election in full swing, Advani has not addressed a single election meeting in UP. Same is the case with Sushma Swaraj, Arun Jaitley and other leaders.
Another strongman, former national president of BJP and former CM of UP, Rajnath Singh too started with his own agenda. However, he too fizzled out after his son Pankaj Singh was not given ticket. Finally to make the matters worse, Pankaj was elevated to the post of general secretary after which three other office bearers resigned citing it as a case of nepotism. Now, Rajnath is sulking and is yet to be seen in action.
Another CM aspirant Kalraj Mishra who has never contested any election in his 39 years of political history started with a jan jagran yatra. It was proclaimed that Kalraj is CM material and will tour the state. Party fielded him from Lucknow (east), a very safe seat and now Kalraj is confined to local neighbourhood politics campaigning and confined to his seat only.
BJP’s state president Suraya Pratap Shahi was projected as another leader from forward lobby. However, he is so entangled in his own election at Pathar Deva in Kushinagar district that he rarely finds time to travel 300 odd kms to reach Lucknow.
Things which went against the BJP in these elections are also aplenty. Here is a look at some of them.
After crying a lot over corruption, BJP did not hesitate to induct the discarded Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) minister Babu Singh Kushwaha. He is the prime accused in National Rural Health Mission (NRHM) scam. The result, the corruption bogey was over for BJP. An internal revolt like situation resulted after which BJP put his membership on hold. The game plan that Kushwaha’s entry will help make inroads in OBCs also did not materialize as he was never a mass leader and had never
contested an election in his life.
Another irritant being Yogi Adityanath, the party MP from Gorakhpur and associated with Gorakhsnath Dham temple. Due to his rhetoric speeches, he owns considerable clout in the eastern region. He has formed his own Hindu Yuva Vahini and has openly expressed his intention of not campaigning for BJP.
Then came Uma Bharti, an imported leader from Madhya Pradesh. Party projected her as CM material. UP leaders objected and then Uma herself stated that she is a chowkidar of UP. Amidst the growing resentment, party fielded her in Charkhari in Mahoba district of Bundelkhand. It is a Lodh-dominated segment and Uma is set to win it comfortably. However, Bundelkhand region has no political ramification in UP’s politics.
With only 19 seats, it is said that you win Bundelkhand or lose, it hardly matters.
However, with all odds against them, no clear cut agenda, no clear cut leader, no clear cut vision, BJP is set to increase its tally, thanks to other parties who have missed the opportunity. Understanding very well that Muslims do not vote for BJP, the opposition parties focused hard on Muslims. The result being that over three crores of Muslims are now a divided lot. They are now present in all parties—Samajwadi Party, BSP, Congress and even the recent Peace Party, the clear cut gainer being BJP. Don’t be surprised if BJP wins most of the Muslim dominated seats. It happened in Azamgarh Lok Sabha elections. For the first time BJP won from Azamgarh defeating all others. Similar results are expected and BJP is set to increase its tally.
However, political experts opine that BJP may gain from the division of votes but that will also not so substantial that it can form the government. The result may be on expected lines. A BJP-BSP combination of government cannot be ruled out totally.
Countdown to UP Polls: