Reuters

Brasilia, May 31: The World Cup has not even begun and already political pundits in football-crazed Brazil are placing their bets how the national squad's sixth victory would influence October's presidential elections.

Some say that the feel-good effect of a Cup victory would benefit President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva more than his main challenger, former Sao Paulo governor Geraldo Alckmin.

"Common wisdom is that a Cup victory helps the incumbent, that is Lula," says Carlos Manhanelli, a Sao Paulo-based consultant specializing in political marketing. "It makes people think the nation is doing well."

But the evidence from three presidential elections that have coincided with the World Cup is mixed. The 1994 victory is said to have helped elect Fernando Henrique Cardoso win the presidency. Then, in 1998 the team lost and Cardoso was still re-elected. In 2002, Brazil won and an opposition candidate - Lula - took the presidency.

Last week a Sensus opinion survey shed some more light on the issue. Fifty-three percent of those polled believe a Cup victory would not benefit Lula's re-election chances, 32 percent thought it did.

Brazil's unprecedented five Cup victories are a source of great pride in a country that is derided as South America's eternal sleeping giant and is troubled by social inequalities and poverty.

Already the spirits of football fans are running high. Sales of the official Brazil jersey and of television sets have skyrocketed. The country's yellow and green flags decorate windows and cars throughout the country.

The central bank earlier this month authorised financial institutions to adapt their opening hours to the times that Brazil's side plays in the contest starting June 9, 2006.

Eight out of 10 Brazilians believe their team will bring home the Cup from Germany, a poll showed last week. Every politician's dream is to tap into such national fervour and Lula is no exception.

Before the team left Brazil to prepare for the Cup in Europe, Lula invited veteran left-back Roberto Carlos for lunch at the presidential palace and staged a photo opportunity to receive an autographed national jersey from the player.

Lula also followed the example of former presidents and signed a decree that allows millions of mostly rural television spectators using satellite dishes to watch Brazil play in the World Cup.

Like all previous presidents, Lula would also have the implicit right to pose with the victorious team in the presidential palace upon its return.

But politicians have to tread carefully when using football as a marketing tool or their efforts could backfire, says Manhanelli. "During the Cup people want to forget about their daily routine and everything that is bad, which includes politicians."

Lula on Monday tried to play down expectations of his team. "Brazil has all it takes to make it to the final but it will require a lot of humbleness," he said on his weekly radio address.

With Alckmin trailing Lula by a wide margin in opinion polls, the opposition says the real election campaign begins only after the World Cup. "The battle only starts after the Cup, until then people don't want to know about politics," says Sergio Guerra, Alckmin's campaign manager.

Some analysts say all these theories about football and politics are hogwash. "One thing has nothing to do with the other, they are separate," says Franklin Martins, a political commentator. "Everybody can feel free to rally for Brazil in the Cup, regardless of who their candidate is."