Political Correspondent
Daijiworld Media Network
April 14, 2014
Haveri – BJP-Congress lock horns with JD(S) as spoilsport
Assemby constituencies: 8
Total Electorate: 13, 71,763
Candidates in fray: 19
Sitting MP: Shivakumar Udasi (BJP)
Haveri Lok Sabha constituency is once again witnessing a repeat of 2009 as the same rival candidates from BJP and Congress are once again locking horns. Shivakumar Udasi, the sitting MP of BJP is facing Saleem Ahmed of Congress. It may be recalled that B S Yeddyurappa had put a pre-condition to get Haveri for his candidates for his re-entry and managed to get it for his protégé Udasi. With over 4.5 lakh Lingayat votes in the district it is political arithmetic that BJP has fielded a Lingayat candidates. At the same time Kurubas and Muslims who together equal Lingayats in number might tilt the balance in favor of Congress.
Shivakumar Udas (BJP), Saleem Ahmed (Cong)
Interestingly, Havery has witnessed a change of fortune for Congress and BJP in the last five years. In 2008 BJP had won 7 of the 8 Assembly seats and the trend reversed in 2013 when BJP failed to get even a single seat as it had conceded the remaining one seat to KJP. For the Congress, its last year’s performance has provided the much needed tonic to take on the might of the BJP which won the seat in 2009 by over 87,000 votes. The situation from 2013 to 2014 is quite different and BSY and Sriramulu’s re-entry into the BJP has electrified the BJP workers as Sriramulu wields considerable influence among the Valimiki community in this constituency also.
The only nightmare for Udasi is the presence of JD (S) candidate Ravi Menasinkai, also a Lingayat, who poses serious challenge to his winning prospects. Needless to say the winner will be decided on the basis of how many Lingayat votes the JD(S) candidate is going to get. This guessing game is giving nightmares to both the rival candidates and knowing the electorate they are sweating it out trying to woo the voters.
There are 19 candidates in the fray including AAP candidate Hassanali Sakharji. Though the electorate comprises of educated middle class nothing else works here other than the caste factor.
Dharwad: A 50:50 chance to rival candidates
Assembly constituencies – 8
Total electorate: 14,11,500
Candidates in the fray: 17
Sitting MP: Prahlad Joshi (BJP)
Dharwad, no doubt is a BJP stronghold and party’s state president Prahlad Joshi is the party’s candidate facing challenge from Congress candidate Vinay Kulkarni. The general feeling in the constituency is that it is safe for Prahlad Joshi here despite the anti-incumbency factor. But politics is not something that depends just on the general sentiments of the people.
Prahlad Joshi (BJP), Vinay Kulakarni (Cong), Pramod Muthalik (Ind)
As a sitting MP Joshi’s lackluster performance is a big liability to the BJP. But in Dharwad there is said to be a big Modi gail which might help Joshi sail through without a serious challenge. Both the candidates are accusing each other of corruption. While Joshi is talking about corruption under UPA rule at the centre, Congress is trying to corner the BJP by projecting its five year rule in Karnataka as the most corrupt. In 2009 Joshi had won by a huge margin of 1.37 lakh votes against the Congress candidate Manjunath Kunnur. The same yardstick may not apply this time as there has been lot of changes since 2009. Sensing that there is trouble the BJP and Sangh Parivar is working overtime concentrating more on door-to-door campaign to ensure Joshi’s victory because the stakes are high for the BJP. Being the party president a win for Joshi would brighten his political prospects but a loss would prove to be a disaster to him.
Interestingly Pramod Muthalik whom Joshi tried to bring into BJP is contesting as an independent candidate. Aam Aadmi Party candidate Hemant Kumar also will eat into a few Congress votes. But they are unlikely to cause any serious challenge to Congress or BJP candidates except that it might reduce the margin of the winning candidate. Vinay Kulkarni who is the sitting MLA from Dharwad Assembly was a reluctant candidate who agreed to contest at the instance of Siddaramaiah. But he has galvanized the Congress rank and file and journalist Patil Puttappa’s clarion call to teach a lesson to Joshi by defeating him, might work in favour of the Congress. Since the caste factor cannot be wished away in Indian politics Congress has fielded Kulkarni a Panhamashali Lingayat with an eye on splitting the Lingayat votes. Kulkarni has a good support base in rural areas apart from that of his community. Naturally it has given nightmares for the BJP as the constituency may go either way with both enjoying a 50: 50 chance.
Uttara Kannada: BJP fighting anti-incumbency and resurgent Congress
Assembly constituencies: 8
Total electorate: 14.21,488
Candidates in fray: 9
Sitting MP: Anant Kumar Hedge (BJP)
A BJP stronghold, retaining Uttara Kannada which has a sitting BJP MP in Anant Kumar Hegde, is proving to be a big challenge for the BJP from which it may not be able to escape unscathed. Though there was a move to change Anant Kumar’s candidature in favour of former education minister Vishweshwar Hegde Kageri, the party decided not to effect a change at a crucial juncture for fear of sending wrong signals to the electorate.
The Congress has fielded Higher Education Minister R V Deshapande’s son Prashanth Deshpande, who brings with him the youth factor to the party. The Congress had a tough time in deciding on issuing tickets to the sons of two Congress stalwarts Margaret Alva and Deshapande but finally decided in favour of Prashanth Deshapande. Prashanth is married to senior NCFP leader Praful Patel’s daughter and the combined influence of his powerful father and equally powerful father-in-law must have worked in favour of Prashanth Deshapande. 37-year old youthful Prashanth Deshpande is making his political debut and the Congress is making herculean efforts to ensure his victory.
Anant Kumar Hegde (BJP), Prashant Deshpande (Cong)
Uttara Kannada was supposed to witness a triangular contest. However, the withdrawal of the candidature by JD (S) candidate Shivananda Naik on the final day has made way for a straight fight between the Congress and the BJP. Shivananda Naik withdrew his candidature citing resource crunch for his unexpected action. However, it is rumoured that Naik withdrew from the fray at the insistence of the BJP. The absence of a JD(S) candidate has certainly left a void in this constituency which has only 9 candidates in the fray.
In the constituency which is dominated by Brahmin politics, the BJP is finding the going tough and Uttara Kannada is expected to witness a keen tussle. The orientation of over one lakh lakh odd Muslim votes and about 65,000 first time voters might prove decisive in deciding the winner.
BJP candidate Anant Kumar Hegde is facing anti-incumbency factor both within the party and outside. Of the eight assembly constituencies, the Congress represents four and BJP represents one. Three assembly seats are represented by independents whose allegiance might be crucial for both the Congress and the BJP. The Congress, being the ruling party is brimming with confidence especially when there is resentment over the non-performance of the incumbent MP, Hindutva poster boy Anant Kumar Hegde. Former MP Margaret Alva who has a considerable influence in the area is smarting under the unsuccessful attempt of not getting the seat for her son Nivedit Alva despite her best efforts. Whether her fans and supporters will work to ensure the victory of her bitter rival remains to be seen considering that a win for youthful Prashanth will close the doors of a political career for her son.