Political Correspondent
Daijiworld Media Network

April 16, 2014

Dakshina Kannada:  Can the Congress break its jinx of 23 years?  

Assembly constituencies: 8
Total electorate: 15, 62,321
Candidates in the fray: 14
Sitting MP:  Nalin Kumar Kateel (BJP)  

It is a do or die battle for Congress veteran B Janardhana Poojary, who at 76, is facing the electorate ninth time in Dakshina Kannada having won four times and losing an equal number of times.   For the last 23 years this constituency has been under the BJP fold and for the first time in two decades the Congress is coming anything close towards victory.  At 76 this may be the last opportunity for Poojary to regain his prestige and sign off triumphantly ending BJP’s long reign.   The general impression is that only a Modi wave and strong cadre based and systematic campaign by the BJP and Sangh Parivar can stand in the way of Poojary’s victory.  

There is also a feeling that Poojary’s own acerbic tongue is his undoing as it has made the young and yuppie crowd weary of Janardhana Poojary.  His verbal attacks on Modi have not gone well  particularly with the young crowd.

Nalin Kumar Kateel (BJP), B Janardhan Poojary (Cong), Vasudeva (AAP)

Poojary is pitted against BJP sitting MP Nalin Kumar Kateel whose good performance as a MP on parliament performance and expenditure under MP’s Local Area Development ranking him as high as 24th at the national level,  has come as a shot in the arm.  Aam Aadmi party candidate M R Vasudeva and CPM candidate Yadav Shetty are also in the fray apart from candidates from SDPI and BSP. 

Getting the party ticket for Poojary was no easy task as he had ward off a stiff opposition from Veerappa Moily’s son Harshan Moily  and even had to  pass through Congress primaries.  There is increased enthusiasm in the Congress camp as the party had humbled the BJP in ULB as well as 2013 assembly elections where it won 7 out of the 8 constituencies leaving lone seat of Sullia for BJP.  Also the church attack during the BJP rule and the moral policing has made the minorities jittery of the BJP.  The BJP was routed in the assembly for this very same reason. 

Apart from the sympathy wave for Poojary,   the  Congress is banking on the Christian and Muslim votes who together form its strong vote bank.   Both the BJP and the Congress are trying to woo the 3.5 lakhs Billava votes.  Though Poojary belongs to the Billava community and Nalin to the dominant Bunt community, the Billava votes might split either way.  With an eye on Billava votes BJP has   brought to the fore many prominent Billava leaders to nullify Poojary’s sole claim for their votes.  Apart from Billava and Bunt votes BJP is also hoping to garner votes of its traditional support base.  The fight for supremacy among Poojary, Oscar and Moily camps might is a big setback for the Congress whereas BJP is fighting as a united force.

BJP the hoping to get a maximum lead in Sullia, Puttur, Belthangady and Moodbidre so that it is able to nullify the lead Poojary might acquire in Mangalore, Mangalore North and Ullal.

AAP candidate M R Vasudeva is a known face but people may not waste their votes voting for him.  Presence of SDPI might also take away a few Muslim votes from the Congress kitty.

To put it succinctly, it is a do-or-die battle for Poojary and for the BJP it is an opportunity to   reassert its dominance.  It looks like a neck-to-neck contest with Nalin Kumar having a slight edge in view of the Modi wave sweeping across the nation. 

Udup-Chickmagalur:   Hegde on the way of Shobha’s march to glory

Assembly constituencies: 8
Total electorate: 13, 86,742
Candidates in the fray:  11
Sitting MP: Jayaprakash Hegde (INC) 

With an electorate of 13,86,742  Udupi Chickmagalur has the lowest number of voters in Karnataka.   This is one among the three constituencies in Karnataka apart from Dakshina Kannada and Shimoga  where female voters outnumber males.  For all its platitude of giving women the due, BJP has fielded its lone woman candidate in this election,   Shobha Karandlaje from Udupi-Chickmagalur to face Jayaprakash Hegde of the Congress.  Other candidates in the fray are former MP from Dakshina Kannada a close-confidante turned foe of Yeddyurappa Dhanjay Kumar, who is  the JD(S) candidate, Zakir Hussain of BSP, Vijay Kumar of CPI, Gurudev of Aam Aadmi party, C J Jagannath from CPI(M) and four independents.  But the contest is between BJP and Congress and other candidates at the most are only for namesake.

JP Hegde (Cong), Shobha Karandlaje (BJP), Dhananjay Kumar (JDS), Gurudev (AAP)

The fight in Udupi assumes significance because Shobha Karandlaje is a close confidante of BJP leader B S Yeddyurappa.  Congress leader Jayaprakash Hegde  is known as  a gentleman politician and a man of few words.  He is the sitting MP from the region which he won in the by-poll held in 2012 after the seat was vacated by BJP leader Sadananda Gowda on his becoming the Chief Minister.   A win would bolster Shobha and Yeddyurappa to assert their position in the BJP.   Although Shobhas candidature from Udupi was almost decided as a precondition for their entry back into the BJP, it is learnt that both BJP workers and party leaders had preferred Chikmagalur MLA C T Ravi from this constituency.   But then the BJP workers pulled their act together and have campaigned as a cohesive force.    While Billava form a majority in Udupi followed by bunts and fishermen communities, Chikmagalur has a significant number of Lingayat  and Vokkaliga votes  that might benefit the BJP.

The going is tough for the BJP mainly because Jayaprakash Hegde has nursed this constituency and enjoys good rapport among his voters.   His easy accessibility, the good work he has done despite his short tenure and his clean and non-corrupt image,  is something that endears him to the voters. 

In 2013 assembly elections Congress had garnered three assembly seats of Kaup, Udupi and Tarikeri and BJP had won Karkala, Sringeri and Chikmagalur.  JD(S) won in Mudigere and Kundapura was won by an independent.  But in terms of votes BJP had polled 83,414 votes lesser than the Congress.  If Shobha has any chance of winning she has to make up for this number plus additional votes, which may not be an easy job. 

JD(S) prospects in Udupi-Chikmaglur suffered a setback following four local leaders of Udupi quitting the party during the poll eve.  Apart from a number of objections they have questioned the party leaders for fielding an outsider in Dhananjaya Kumar from Udupi.  JD(S) has also entered into a poll alliance with SDPI which has lost whatever little influence it had over the constituency.

It is a crucial battle for Shobha Karandlaje which might be her ticket to further glory.  But Jayaprakash Hegde is sitting firmly on her way to further glory. 

Chikkballapur:  A tussle between two heavy-weight former CM’s

Assemby constituencies: 8
Total Electorate: 15, 99,394
Candidates in the fray: 19
Sitting MP:  M Veerappa Moily (INC) 

By taking on Congress veteran M Veerappa Moily JD(S) leader Kumaraswamy has agreed that he has taken a risk in this election.  At the same time he is facing criticism saying he has run away from Bangalore North fearing D K Shivakumar.  Voters of Ramnagar assembly constituency are angry   as he has once again ditched them.    Kumaraswamy is now nicknamed as a migratory bird and his opponent project him an outsider in chikkaballapur.

Veerappa Moily (Cong), HD Kumaraswamy (JDS), Bachegowda (BJP)

 For Kumaraswamy, it is a gamble as Chikkaballapur constituency is facing a fierce battle among candidates of the three major political parties.  The BJP has fielded Bachche Gowda, a former minister to take on these two heavyweights.   With the entry of Kumaraswamy Moily is facing a stiff challenge this time unlike in 2009 when he faced a weak candidate in C Ashwathanarayana of the BJP.   What was expected to be a direct fight between the BJP and Congress veterans this time has become a battle of prestige with the entry of H D Kumaraswamy in  Chikkballapur.
 
Kumaraswamy has decided to contest from Chikkballapur with an eye on the 2 lakh odd Vokkaliga votes.  He is also eyeing the votes of OBC, SC and ST communities though these voters are traditionally   Congress supporters.   BJP too had fielded a Vokkaliga leader, Bachche Gowda, who was a minister during the BJP rule.

Keeping an eye on this constituency and considering that water scarcity is a major issue in Chikkballapur,  Moily has pushed for Yettinahole project by diverting Netravati river, a move which is viewed as backstabbing by the people of undivided Dakshina Kannada.    Water scarcity is one issue here which has definitely put Moily on the back foot.  The voters have understood his motive in trying to woo them through Ettinahole project and there were protest when the foundation stone was laid for the project.  Many people even questioned the timing of the foundation stone, just a day before the elections were notified.

As compared to his opponents, Bachche Gowda, known for his   outspokenness, is a local man who had represented Hoskote assembly constituency.  Both the Congress and the BJP can ignore him at their own peril.  Bachche Gowda   enjoys considerable influence in Yelahanka, Hoskote, Doddaballapur and Nelamangala.  He also has the support of a section of Vokkaligas in rural areas of the constituency. 

Though political equations have changed since the 51,000 margin of victory of Moily in 2009  Chikkballapur is one among the few high-profile constituencies observed keenly,  the result of which might have widespread ramifications to the candidates and their parties. 

Kolar:  Muniyappa on a shaky wicket 

Assembly constituencies: 8
Total electorate: 14,92,987
Candidates in the fray: 22
Sitting MP:  K H Muniyappa (INC)

If there is one parliamentary constituency in Karnataka which the Congress is sure of  winning   even before the elections it is Kolar (SC reserved) , which has always gone to the Congress fold.   Congress has won 14 times out of the 15 times in Kolar and six-time-in a row M P K H  Muniyappa is contesting to  register his 7th win.  His winning streak in itself would have been a dampener for his opponents.  But it is not  so this time largely because there is a strong anti-incumbency factor against Muniyappa.  It is not just the voters but even the party workers of his own Congress party who are fuming due to lack of basic facilities to the people of the constituency such as drinking water and employment opportunities.

KH Muniappa (Cong), Narayanaswamy (BJP)

Sensing the mood among voters the JD (S) had fielded a Bangalore-based realtor K Keshava   and the BJP candidate is none other than E M Narayanaswamy, an import from the Congress during the infamous “Operation Lotus” who is a four-time MLA. 

The constituency has about 4 lakh Vokkaligas closely followed by Dalits.  Muslims, Kurubas and other voters comprise about 2 lakh each.   In 2009 Muniyappa had won by a margin of just 13,000 votes against D S Veerayya of the BJP.  But there is possibility of Vokkaliga votes dividing among the three major contenders, in which case the Muslim votes will be the deciding factor. 
  
A shrewd politician that he is  Muniyappa who has sensed that his victory is in danger has roped in some independent MLA’s and former Congress leaders back into the party.  He has succeeded in getting the support of independent MLA Varthur Prakash.  Former BJP MLA from Malur S N Krishnaiah Setty, a known name for corruption, is also brought into Congress fold. 

JD(S) which has three MLA’s from this constituency is trying its best to woo voters for their party candidate.  It is also rumoured that a Muslims who are disenchanted with Muniyappa and might show their proclivity towards JD(S).  Apart from these three main contenders, candidates from SP, AAP, BSP and 14 independents are in the fray. 

Both JD(S) and BJP are trying their best to shake the Congress fort and this time around Muniyappa looks shaky, brightening the hopes of his opponents. 

Karnataka complete coverage:

• Karnataka Poll Watch 8: Bangalore North, Central and South
• Karnataka Poll Watch 7 : Mysore, Chamarajnagar, Bangalore Rural
• Karnataka Poll Watch 6 : Chitradurga, Tumkur, Mandya
• Karnataka Poll Watch 5 : Davanagere, Hassan, Shimoga
• Karnataka Poll Round-up 4 : Haveri, Dharwad, Uttara Kannada
• Karnataka Poll Watch 3: Koppal, Bidar, Bellary
• Karnataka Poll Watch 2 : Bijapur, Gulbarga, Raichur
• Karnataka Poll Watch : Chikkodi, Belgaum, Bagalkot