IANS

New Delhi, Sep 1: Drought may retard India's growth from 6.1 percent logged during the first quarter of this fiscal, even as 2009-10 may end with a 6.3-percent expansion, Planning Commission Deputy Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia said Tuesday.

"The growth rate may turn worse in the current and next quarter because of the impact of drought," Ahluwalia told reporters after a meeting of the full plan panel here, chaired by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh at its headquarters at Yojana Bhavan.

But he predicted India's gross domestic product (GDP) would expand by 6.3 percent this fiscal, anticipating a strong turnaround in the last quarter ending March 31, 2010. "A 6.3 percent growth is a reasonable base."

Tuesday's meeting was also attended by Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee, Home Minister P. Chidambaram, Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar, Power Minister Sushilkumar Shinde and Railways Minister Mamata Banerjee, among other key policymakers.

During the meeting, the Planning Commission also presented a paper before the members in which it expressed optimism about high growth path once again from the next fiscal, if the monsoon were normal during the ensuing years.

"We project growth of 8 percent in 2010-11 and 9 percent in 2011-12. This is optimistic but not impossible. If we have normal monsoon in 2010-11, we can expect a strong rebound in agriculture next year," the paper said.

The plan panel paper also said India's merchandise exports - which dipped for the 10th consecutive month in July - will also be able to register a growth next year because of the turnaround expected in the global economy.

"Exports would also recover as industrialised countries return to positive growth of one percent in 2010 with further acceleration in 2011."