Nimish Shukla/TNN
Ahmedabad, Oct 28: Investors are approaching this Diwali with a heightened sense of dread unparalleled in the history of the Indian stock markets. When trading opens for 'muhurat' for one hour from 6.15 pm on Tuesday, the mood is at a record low, with the sensex having crashed 33% in October alone.
Compare that to the 15% gain in the sensex in one month of build-up to Diwali last year to get a sense of how low the confidence of the investor this time is in Goddess Laxmi on the day of her puja and to mark the beginning of a new Samvat year. "People will just go through the motions during 'muhurat' trading as there is nothing to look forward to," said Vinod Sharma, head of research, Anagram Securities.
The year gone by has eroded investor wealth by 59.9% — the worst performance by the index in any previous bear phase. Not even the bear attacks fuelled by Harshad Mehta or Ketan Parekh had mauled the investors so badly, compared to the crashing world economy in October 2008 which has shaved off market capitalisation of Bombay Stock Exchange by Rs 15 lakh crore.
Even after the sensex swung back 800 points from its low on Monday, there was hardly anyone out there ready to say that the index has seen the bottom and that the worst is over. The pain, if market analysts were making any sense as they struggled with explanations, would only intensify in November with the gloom only getting darker. "We seem to be close to the bottom and the next year can only be better," said Dinesh Thakkar, head of Angel Broking.
"I have not seen a worse approach to Diwali in the last two decades. For the first time, I am seeing so many of my clients not in a mood to participate in 'muhurat' trading tommorow," said Arun Kejriwal, head of Kejriwal Research and Investment Services, a leading advisory firm.